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| - The coronavirus pandemic led to a sudden shutdown of the US economy and tens of millions in job losses. It also created challenges for the government numbers-crunchers who calculate unemployment. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) employment report for April is expected to show more than 20 million jobs purged and the unemployment rate shooting into double digits, likely to more than 16 percent. Julie Hatch Maxfield, associate commissioner of the BLS, which computes the monthly data, explained to AFP how the agency is dealing with the unprecedented situation: "Our data collection centers -- we have four of them across the country -- were shut down," Maxfield said. "We (now) have a decent portion of those interviewers teleworking. However, just the capacity of that alone isn't enough." In March, "We had about 66 percent of people who typically report to us... which is about nine percent lower (than normal)," she said. Of their 350 data collectors, Maxfield said all of them will be transitioned to work from home, if they are able to. "There's always a fine line between letting the data speak for itself and an intervention," where the BLS will try to correct any discrepancies, Maxfield said. "When we decide to intervene, (we) try to be transparent." Answers for the household survey, which generates the unemployment rate, are taken verbatim, she said, and in March, the survey showed an unusual "big jump" in people with jobs but absent from work. "Just looking at the sort of aggregate estimates kind of tips you off to something unusual is happening there," Maxfield said. After looking at the underlying data, the BLS determined the employment status of some workers wasn't being classified properly. "If you made the assumption that they should have been on temporary layoff (rather than employed)... it would have increased the unemployment rate by almost one percentage point. The unemployment rate could have actually been higher had these people not been misclassified," she said. Business or government agencies who usually respond to the survey by phone are being emailed and asked to reply via a website, Maxfield said. The agency usually assumes 250,000 new jobs added in a given April, but the BLS announced for the forthcoming report it would be changing its model for calculating business openings and closures "to reflect changes in the relationship between business births and deaths due to COVID-19." "We have, when we think it is warranted, changed our estimating procedures, including the birth, death model," Maxfield said. On the issue of people misclassified as employed in the March household survey, she said, "It was obvious that it occurred. And we try to work with our Census Bureau partners to get the information to the interviewers themselves. "We do routinely provide training to our interviewers about either refresher training or things that we want them to be aware of given the topical nature of what they're trying to collect information about." hs/cs
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