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| - - There was a 17.2% increase in children in care between September 2019 and October 2023, according to data from the Department of Health.
- The number of children in care has been increasing for over a decade.
- The very latest figures show an even steeper increase.
In an Assembly debate about children’s mental health that took place on 30 September, DUP MLA Diane Forsythe said:
“[The] number of children in care at the end of October 2023 was 17% higher than the last official figure prior to COVID.”
This claim is supported by evidence.
Official data from the Department of Health indicates that 3,362 children were in care at 31 September 2019 (which the department says is the “last official” figure before the pandemic) while 3,941 children were in care at the end of October 2023.
Beyond that, the number of children in care continues to rise. New yearly figures published after Ms Forsythe’s claim show an 18% increase in children in care between 31 March 2020 and 31 March 2024.
Recent provisional data published by DoH indicates that the increase since March 2020 may now actually be more like 22%.
- Children in care
The Department of Education (DE) defines ‘children looked after’ as “those in the care of a Trust or who are provided with accommodation by a Trust.’ They may be living with a family relative or friend, with foster carers, or in residential homes or schools.”
The Department of Health (DoH) indicates that the most common reason children are taken into care is to protect them from abuse or neglect while in other cases parents “could be absent or may be unable to cope due to disability or illness.”
- Source
FactCheckNI contacted the DUP MLA about her claim. She pointed us to a report from the DoH which gathered detailed information on Northern Ireland children’s social services data during COVID-19.
Ms Forsythe was quoting a finding from a report which indicates that 3,362 children were in care at 30 September 2019, which the publication says is the “last official figure prior to Covid-19”, and that 3,941 children were in care at 31 October 2023.
This is a 17.2% increase – meaning the claim is supported by evidence.
- More recent numbers
Typically, the DoH publishes annual reports about children in care, using 31 March as the annual point of comparison.
On 31 March 2020 – just after the start of the pandemic -there were 3,383 looked after children in Northern Ireland. There was a 16.5% increase in looked after children between then and October 2023.
Shortly after the DUP MLA’s claim was made in the Assembly, new annual figures were released by DoH covering the 12 months to 31 March 2024, showing a total of 3,999 looked after children in Northern Ireland – 18.9% higher than the figure at 31 September 2019 (DoH’s last official number pre-dating the pandemic) and 18.2% higher than the 3,383 looked after children at 31 March 2020.
The DoH has also published provisional data finding 4,317 children in care in Northern Ireland at 30 September 2024. This represents a 28.4% increase from the pre-pandemic figure and a 27.6% increase from March 2020.
- Trends and analysis
The number of children in care has been increasing for at least a decade. The graph below shows a steady increase in numbers since 2013, albeit more steeply in recent years.
Figure 2 – source: Children’s social care statistics for Northern Ireland 2023/24
SDLP MLA Daniel McCrossan submitted a written question to the Health Minister on 12 September 2024 to ask why the number of children and young people in care continuously for 12 months or longer had risen by 46% between 2013 and 2023.
The Minister’s reply stated that more children are being admitted to care than are being discharged, and that children are spending longer in care. It drew attention to underlying factors such as:
- Enhanced awareness of child protection issues over recent years.
- Increasing levels of child poverty. Children from the most deprived areas in Northern Ireland make up the highest proportion of children in care for 12 months or more (43%), compared to just 5% of children from the least deprived areas.
- Growing complexity of need among children and young people. One fifth of the children in care for 12 months or longer at 30 September 2023 had a disability.
An independent report, The NI Review of Children’s Social Care Services led by Professor Ray Jones, was published in June 2023.
Jones focuses on child poverty, deprivation and ‘destitution’ as a major driver of the need for children’s social care services. He identified further inter-related factors compounding the rising numbers of children in care in Northern Ireland:
- Legacy of the Troubles and Troubles related trauma.
- Negative impact of political instability, and often political vacuum, on children, families and support services.
- Continuing impact of COVID pandemic and lockdowns.
- Children’s social care workforce crisis.
- Fragmented services and inadequate funding.
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