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| - Snopes was unable to determine when and where the advertisement first appeared. However, The New Yorker published it in 1994 and 1995 issues of its printed magazine, according to the publication's archives.
For years, an image has gained popularity online for supposedly depicting a black-and-white advertisement from the 1990s that predicts future prices of a vacation, "basic car" and "burger and fries."
For instance, a 2023 X post (archived) with the image has amassed more than 7.2 million views as of this writing. The alleged ad reads:
They say in thirty years a burger & fries could cost $16, a vacation $12,500, and a basic car $65,000. No problem. You'll eat in. You won't drive. And you won't go anywhere.
A reverse image search showed that the purported ad has circulated online since at least 2017, appearing on platforms like Reddit (archived), Tumblr (archived) and Imgur (archived). Publications such as BuzzFeed, Yahoo, UNILAD and the Daily Mail have also published it.
The ad was genuine. It was not the product of digital editing or artificial intelligence (AI) software. The New Yorker, for instance, published it in its Oct. 3, 1994, and March 13, 1995, magazine issues, according to the publication's archives.
It was unknown where or when the advertisement first appeared in print.
To piece together the ad's origin story, Snopes turned to the British stock photography agency Alamy. It hosts a picture of the ad on its website under the title "1996 TIAA-CREF print ad."
TIAA-CREF stands for
Other similarly designed TIAA-CREF ads are viewable via Vintage Paper Ads, a website that sells vintage newspaper and magazine advertisements, and the blog site Boing Boing.
Todd Heyman, an advertising creative director, created the ad alongside art director Bill Bonomo. According to Entrepreneur, a magazine about entrepreneurship and small business management:
Heyman and Bonomo worked for the ad agency Ogilvy, and were given a brief by a new client. It was TIAA-CREF (now known simply as TIAA), a financial firm that provides investment and insurance products. The firm was seeking new customers and wanted to push this message: "You can count on TIAA-CREF to help ensure a comfortable retirement."
Heyman and Bonomo confirmed those details via email. They said they did not have information about when or how long, the advertisement appeared in print.
Did the Ad's Price Predictions Come True?
No matter the decade, prices on vehicles, vacations and burger meals vary greatly. Purchasers' locations as well as their income levels and taste will affect perceptions of appropriate costs.
That being said, research by personal finance website MoneyGeek found that the cost of a burger, french fries and a soda across 189 major and local restaurant chains in 50 of the largest U.S. cities increased 24% between 2022 and 2024. San Diego, Washington D.C. and San Francisco were the most expensive cities, where it costs roughly $18 for the meal. The least expensive city was Detroit, Michigan, at $8.12.
For people who cooked at home, the cost of ingredients for a home-prepared quarter-pound cheeseburger totaled $2.22 per burger in May 2024 — a 1.8% increase from the year before — according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Economic Research Service.
MoneyGeek also reported that the average price of a new car in 2025 is $48,401. However, that number fluctuates significantly depending on vehicle type and manufacturer.
Meanwhile, according to consumer finance website Bankrate, the average cost for a one-person, one-week vacation in the U.S. was $1,991 in 2024. With two people, that cost jumped to $3,982 and for a family of four, it reached $7,964.
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