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In Milwaukee, murders are coming down from a peak, they're not up 57%, despite Jeff Sessions' claim
The attorney general of the United States came to Milwaukee and said murder in the city "is up an astonishing 57 percent."
His number wasn’t entirely wrong. It reflects a spike in murders that occurred after 2014.
But after the spike, the murders leveled off, and have begun to drop.
The claim
Jeff Sessions, President Donald Trump’s attorney general, came to Milwaukee on Dec. 18, 2017, to announce he was adding two more federal prosecutors to fight violent crime in the city.
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The former GOP U.S. senator from Alabama used statistics to underscore the need, saying:
And sadly, in this beautiful city, it has not been immune to these problems. Milwaukee, rape is up 21 percent in two years. Assault is up. Murder is up an astonishing 57 percent. So, these trends cannot continue.
Sessions’ statistic
We asked the White House to provide information to back Sessions’ statement. A spokesman noted that Sessions had made a two-year reference when he cited an increase in rape in Milwaukee and told us Sessions was also making a two-year comparison for Milwaukee’s murder rate. We were directed to City-Data.com figures showing Milwaukee had 90 murders in 2014 and 141 in 2016.
That’s an increase of 57 percent.
The City-Data.com figures do correspond with official FBI figures:
Year
Milwaukee murders according to FBI UCR statistics
2014
2015
2016
But the FBI figures show the big spike in Milwaukee murders occurred between 2014 and 2015 (perhaps because of opioids, according to a new federal study) -- and then dropped in 2016.
More importantly, figures for an up-to-date two-year comparison -- including 2017, which had nearly ended when Sessions made his statement -- were available.
Newer numbers
These numbers were available on the day Sessions made his statement from the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s continuously updated homicide database and from the Milwaukee Police Department:
Year
Milwaukee Journal Sentinel
Milwaukee
Featured Fact-check
Police Department
2015
153
147
2016
154
142
2017*
121
118
Both sets of figures show that from 2015 through Dec. 18, 2017, the number of murders was down -- by 21 percent, according to the Journal Sentinel figures, and down by 20 percent, according to the Milwaukee Police Department figures.
Note: The Journal Sentinel counts are higher because they include killings, such as those deemed self-defense, that are not included in the FBI Uniform Crime Reporting counts. The figures given to us by the Police Department follow the UCR system.
Our rating
Sessions said that in Milwaukee, "murder is up an astonishing 57 percent."
Sessions wasn’t entirely clear on his time frame, although in citing Milwaukee crime figures, he had just made reference in his remarks to a two-year increase in rape. The FBI’s count of homicides in Milwaukee in 2016 -- the latest year for which FBI figures are available -- was 57 percent higher than it was two years earlier, in 2014. Clearly, murders are higher since 2014.
But that paints a misleading picture of the current situation. Using an up-to-date two-year comparison, homicides in 2017, while still higher than in 2014, were about 20 percent lower than they were in 2015.
For a statement that has an element of truth, but ignores critical facts that would give a different impression, our rating is Mostly False.
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Our Sources
Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, video of Jeff Session remarks, Dec. 18, 2017
Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, "AG Jeff Sessions adding 2 more federal prosecutors in Milwaukee to combat violent crime," Dec. 18, 2017
Email, White House spokesman Steven Cheung, Dec. 18, 2017
Email, Milwaukee Police Department Sgt. Timothy Gauerke, Dec. 20, 2017
City-Data.com, Milwaukee crime statistics, 2002 through 2016
Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, Milwaukee homicides database
FBI, "Wisconsin -- Offenses Known to Law Enforcement by City, 2014"
FBI, "Wisconsin -- Offenses Known to Law Enforcement by City, 2015"
Wisconsin Department of Justice, "UCR Offense Data," 2016
Milwaukee Homicide Review Commission, 2016 annual report (Figure 8)
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More by Tom Kertscher
In Milwaukee, murders are coming down from a peak, they're not up 57%, despite Jeff Sessions' claim
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