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  • Stand up for the facts! Our only agenda is to publish the truth so you can be an informed participant in democracy. We need your help. I would like to contribute Donald Trump off-base in saying murders are up in New York City Two New Yorkers, Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, mixed it up over crime stats in the Big Apple at the first presidential debate in Hempstead, N.Y. Here’s their exchange, prompted by Donald Trump’s suggestion that police should expand the use of "stop and frisk" policies to curb crime. Trump: "Stop and frisk had a tremendous impact on the safety of New York City, tremendous beyond belief. So when you say it has no impact, it really did. It had a very, very big impact." Clinton: "Well, it's also fair to say, if we're going to talk about mayors, that under the current mayor, crime has continued to drop, including murders. So there is -- " Trump: "No, you're wrong. You're wrong." Sign up for PolitiFact texts Clinton: "No, I'm not." Trump: "Murders are up. All right. You check it." And so we will. Is it correct that "murders are up" in New York City, as Trump said? The most recent statistics from the New York Police Department show that murders in New York City are falling. The data, which cover the period between Sept. 12 and Sept. 18, 2016, compare various crimes, including murder, over a series of time frames. Here’s the summary: Period 2015 murder figure 2016 murder figure Increase or decline Week to date 6 3 -50 percent Past 28 days 35 24 -31.4 percent Year to date 257 246 -4.3 percent 2 years ago to date -- -- Featured Fact-check +7.9 percent 6 years ago to date -- -- -36.1 percent 23 years ago to date -- -- -82.7 percent So, in five of the six time periods offered by the NYPD -- including the past year to date, the figure most commonly cited in the media -- crime has fallen. In only one time frame, comparing year to date 2016 to year to date 2014, did the number of murders increase. And in fact, this is essentially what the Trump campaign pointed to when we asked them to support the candidate’s claim. They noted that during the full year of 2014, there were 333 murders, a number that rose to 352 in the full year of 2015. That’s about a 6 percent increase. Still, this is just one cherry-picked time frame. And a NYPD spokesman rejected Trump’s statement via Twitter during the debate. J. Peter Donald, the NYPD's assistant commissioner for communication and public information, tweeted, "Additionally, #NYC is on pace to have one of the safest years on record for crime. Murders, shootings are (down arrow) significantly." In the meantime, we’ll note that the data in the NYPD release went on to compare year-end data from 2015 to four previous years and found that it is well below its previous levels -- consistent with a quarter-century decline in violent crime. According to the NYPD data, murder was down by 45.8 percent compared to 2001, down by 44 percent compared to 1998, down by 81.7 percent compared to 1993, and down by 84.4 percent compared to 1990. The year-to-date data for rape, felonious assault and grand larceny are up by between 1 percent and 3.5 percent. But Trump was specific about referring to murder. And statistics released by the FBI the morning of the debate that showed murders rose nationally by 10.8 percent in 2015, the biggest one-year percentage jump since 1971. But again, those are national figures, not murders in New York City. So among the time frames released by the NYPD, there’s only one comparison where Trump would be correct -- today compared to two years ago. In general, murders are down in New York City for almost any time period you can look at. Our ruling At the debate, Trump said that In New York City, "murders are up." For virtually any time frame you can look at, including the year to date, murders in New York City are down. We rate the statement Mostly False.https://www.sharethefacts.co/share/1c058516-fb5d-4fc7-8530-1291324b44f8 Read About Our Process Our Sources Washington Post, presidential debate transcript, Sept. 26, 2016 NYPD, CompStat report, Sept. 12-18, 2016 J. Peter Donald, tweet, Sept. 26, 2016 FBI, "Offenses Known to Law Enforcement by City--New York," 2014 FBI, "Offenses Known to Law Enforcement by City--New York," 2015 FBI, "Latest Crime Statistics Released," Sept. 26, 2016 Politico, "Overall crime and shootings are down." Sept. 26, 2016 Washington Post, "Trump incorrectly says murders are up in New York," Sept. 26, 2016 Email interview with Steven Cheung, spokesman for Donald Trump, Sept. 27, 2016 Browse the Truth-O-Meter More by Louis Jacobson Donald Trump off-base in saying murders are up in New York City Support independent fact-checking. Become a member! In a world of wild talk and fake news, help us stand up for the facts.
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