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| - Fact Check: Has IIT Kanpur predicted third wave from July 15? Well, there are lots of ifs, buts and jabs in between
Even when the second wave of the pandemic was at its peak, health experts in India had warned of an impending third wave. Recent cases caused by the Delta Plus variant of coronavirus have only added to the fear.
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India Today Fact Check
IIT Kanpur projected three likely scenarios for the third wave of coronavirus. But they were based on assumptions that India would be fully unlocked from July 15. Vaccination wasn’t taken into account either.
Even when the second wave of the pandemic was at its peak, health experts in India had warned of an impending third wave. Recent cases caused by the Delta Plus variant of coronavirus have only added to the fear.
Amid this, a Facebook post with an image of a graph claims that researchers at IIT Kanpur have predicted the third wave will hit India from July 15. “As per IIT Kanpur model, 3rd wave can hit India from 15 Th July onwards. You will note that their prediction about the 2nd wave was absolutely correct,” reads the caption.
India Today Anti Fake News War Room (AFWA) has found that the projection graph was indeed created by two IIT Kanpur professors, but to say that the third wave will hit India from July 15 is an oversimplification of the study.
The research lays out three likely scenarios of the advent of the third wave, based solely on the assumption that India will be fully unlocked on July 15. Most importantly, it did not take into account the effect of vaccination.
What did the IIT Kanpur forecast say?
We found the detailed study on the website of IIT Kanpur. The three scenarios, projected by professors Rajesh Ranjan and Mahendra Verma along with their teams, are explained below.
Scenario 1: This is shown in the chart in the green dotted line. If life gets back to normal, the third wave peak can be in October, but it will be less severe than the second wave peak of May.
Broadly, when one infected person starts infecting more than one person and this situation continues for about two weeks, which results in rapid rise of cases, it is the beginning of a wave.
Scenario 2: This is shown in the pink dotted line. If normal life resumes but the virus mutates, the third wave peak can come as early as mid-September. This will be more severe than second wave peak.
Scenario 3: This is marked in the chart with the blue dotted line. In this scenario, strict Covid restrictions are imposed in the country. This could delay the third wave peak till late October, and it would be much less severe.
The riders
Like all projections, there are certain conditions to this forecast too. For example, it assumes that India will be fully unlocked in mid-July.
“We have assumed here that from July 15 onwards, life will be fully normal in the country. In that situation, cases will start increasing. It will be slow initially but the rate of infection will be faster later,” says Professor Rajesh Ranjan.
Also, the study has not considered the effect of vaccination. “Vaccination is known to break the transmission chain. At present, the model does not include vaccination, which should decrease the peak significantly,” it says.
Though experts are not sure how effective the vaccines will be on virus mutations, but it is clear that there are circumstances that might alter the graph significantly.
Covid restrictions & vaccination in India
With cases going down and to revive economic activities, several states have begun easing up Covid restrictions. Partial lockdowns though are still in force in places with high cases.
Vaccination too has picked pace, with the government setting a target of inoculating the entire adult population by December-end. On June 21, more than 80 lakh people were vaccinated in India in a record of sorts.
Doctors, however, have expressed apprehensions over virus mutation. The latest Delta Plus variant of coronavirus, for example, has infected over 40 people across India already.
AIIMS director Randeep Guleria recently said proactive steps are needed right away to avoid a third wave. He advised Covid-appropriate behaviour by the masses and strict surveillance by the government.
However, it will be oversimplification and misleading to say that IIT Kanpur has projected that the third wave of coronavirus will hit India from July 15.
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