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Claim: Polling firm OCTA Research released the results of its online survey conducted from October 1 to November 20, 2024, for the 2025 mayoral and vice mayoral races in Davao City.
Rating: FALSE
Why we fact-checked this: The graphic showing the alleged survey results can be found in several Facebook posts circulating this January.
The posts claim that former Civil Service Commission chairperson Karlo Nograles leads the mayoral race in Davao City, garnering 71% public support, while former president Rodrigo Duterte garnered 29%.
For the vice mayoral race, Davao City First District Councilor Bernie Al-ag supposedly garnered 80% public support, while Davao City Mayor Sebastian Duterte garnered 20%.
Examples of posts showing the alleged survey results include a January 24 post in the Facebook group “BONGBONG MARCOS LOYALIST FACEBOOK WARRIORS,” a January 26 post in the Facebook group “Leni Angat Buhay Pilipinas,” and a post on January 27 in the Facebook page “AdminRich.”
The facts: The survey results shown in the graphic are fabricated.
In a statement posted on the OCTA Research Facebook page, the polling firm’s president Ranjit Rye said: “We have been informed about alleged pre-election survey results in Davao City that are falsely attributed to OCTA Research. These results, currently circulating on social media and in local print media, are not legitimate.”
Additionally, a January 27 post on X by OCTA Research Fellow Dr. Guido David states: “There are some fake “OCTA” surveys being disseminated on Social Media which shows [sic] survey results for Davao City. OCTA surveys are only released through official channels, e.g. through the website or X.”
While neither post stated which particular fabricated results they were referring to, the graphic showing the supposed Davao City mayoral and vice mayoral race survey results cannot be found on the OCTA Research website or their various social media channels, such as on Facebook or David’s X account.
In a text message to Rappler, OCTA Research also confirmed that the Davao City survey results shown in the graphic are “fake.”
Davao City mayoral and vice mayoral candidates: According to the Commission on Elections, five candidates are vying for the position of Davao City mayor for the 2025 elections: Rodolfo Atenen Cubos, Rodrigo Roa Duterte, Jonathan Mendoza Julaine, Karlo Alexei Bendigo Nograles, and Joselito Uy Tan.
Meanwhile, four candidates are running for vice mayor: Bernard Echaves Al-Ag, Richard Antonio Alcebar, Sebastian Zimmerman Duterte, and Rhodora Soriano Barcena.
Nograles and his running mate Al-Ag are posing a challenge to the father-son Duterte tandem in the 2025 elections. The Nograles and Duterte families have been political rivals in Davao City since the 1990s.
The rivalry eased when Nograles endorsed the elder Duterte’s 2016 presidential bid. However, relations between the two families soured after the 2022 elections. (READ: Nograles siblings challenge Dutertes in Davao with mayoral, congressional bids)
Debunked: Rappler has previously fact-checked several claims with fabricated survey results, such as those shown here:
- FACT CHECK: Pasig City mayoral, vice mayoral survey circulating online is fake (November 12, 2024)
- FALSE: Marcos Jr. leads in Bloomberg survey on best candidate to lead economic recovery (March 20, 2022)
- HINDI TOTOO: Bumagsak ang net satisfaction rating ni Robredo sa bagong SWS survey (March 17, 2022)
- HINDI TOTOO: Mayorya ng mga alkalde ang sumusuporta kina Marcos-Duterte, ayon sa Pulse Asia (April 16, 2022)
- FALSE: 2022 preference survey results from Pulse Asia, SWS, PPCRV, KBP (August 3, 2021)
- FALSE: 1Sambayan releases presidential survey with Robredo in the lead (June 3, 2021)
- FALSE: Duterte’s Pulse Asia approval rating is 99.9% (April 9, 2021)
- FALSE: ‘98% trust Duterte following ABS-CBN shutdown’ (February 20, 2020)
- FACT CHECK: ‘Sizeable majority’ of Filipinos currently not in favor of federalism (May 7, 2018)
– Percival Bueser/ Rappler.com
Percival Bueser is a graduate of Rappler’s fact-checking mentorship program. This fact check was reviewed by a member of Rappler’s research team and a senior editor. Learn more about Rappler’s fact-checking mentorship program here.
Keep us aware of suspicious Facebook pages, groups, accounts, websites, articles, or photos in your network by contacting us at factcheck@rappler.com. Let us battle disinformation one Fact Check at a time.
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