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| - On Nov. 25, 2024, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump posted to his social media site Truth Social that on his first day in office, Jan. 20, 2025, he would sign an executive order placing 25% tariffs on products from Mexico and Canada. According to the post, those tariffs would remain in place "until such time as Drugs, in particular Fentanyl, and all Illegal Aliens stop this Invasion of our Country!"
In response, the newly elected President of Mexico, Claudia Sheinbaum, read aloud a letter during her Nov. 26 news conference that she intended to send to Trump. The letter criticized Trump's suggested policies and reported that the Mexican government had enacted its own policies that led to a 75% reduction in "encounters" on the southern border, according to data from the U.S. Customs and Border Patrol. Sheinbaum wrote that those policies were why "caravans of migrants no longer arrive at the border."
But many conservative pundits on social media sites like X interpreted Sheinbaum's words differently. These posts claimed that Sheinbaum had announced she would stop migrant caravans from arriving at the southern border in response to Trump's tariff threat.
This was not true. Sheinbaum's letter made it clear that the policies stopping caravans from arriving at the southern border were in place during the Biden administration, and were not the result of Trump's tariff threat. For example, Reuters reported on Nov. 8, 2024, before Trump had publicly threatened tariffs against Mexico, that the country would "stick with policies aimed at stopping migrants," implying that those policies had already been in place.
According to The New York Times, migrant caravans starting in Mexico rarely make it to the U.S. border. The caravans, which are formed due to the power and safety of large numbers, break up due to attrition or negotiations with the Mexican government.
Reuters reported that Mexico could respond with tariffs of its own if Trump pursued his promise, quoting Sheinbaum's economic minister Marcelo Ebrard. Sheinbaum's letter also mentioned that idea, noting that "one tariff will be followed by another in response, and so on until we put joint ventures at risk."
The full letter was published in Spanish on the Mexican government's website. Snopes used Google Translate to create an English translation before multi-lingual Snopes staff members edited and proofed the translation for accuracy and clarity:
Dear President-elect Trump,
I am writing to you in response to your statement from November 25 about migration, fentanyl trafficking and tariffs.
You are probably not aware that Mexico has developed a comprehensive policy to address migrants from different parts of the world that cross our territory headed for the southern border of the United States of America. As a result, and according to figures from the United States Customs and Border Patrol (CBP), encounters on the border between Mexico and the United Staes have decreased 75% between December 2023 and November 2024. By the way, half of those who arrive do so through an appointment that has been legally granted through the United States's CBP One program. For these reasons, caravans of migrants no longer arrive at the border. Even so, it is clear that we must jointly arrive at another model of labor mobility that is necessary for your country and addresses the causes that lead families to leave their places of origin out of necessity. If a percentage of what the United States allocates to war was instead dedicated to development and building peace, the root causes of human mobility would be addressed.
On the other hand, and for humanitarian reasons, we have always expressed Mexico's willingness to prevent the continuation of the epidemic of fentanyl in the United States, which is a problem of consumption and of public health for your country's society. So far this year, the Mexican armed forces and prosecutors have seized tons of different types of drugs, 10,340 weapons and detained 15,640 persons for violence related to drug trafficking. A constitutional reform is currently in the process of approval in my country's legislative branch to classify the production, distribution, and commercialization of fentanyl and other synthetic drugs as a serious crime without the right to bail. However, it is publicly known that the chemical precursors for the manufacture of this and other synthetic drugs enter Canada, the US and Mexico illegally from Asian countries, for which international collaboration is urgently needed.
You should also be aware of the trafficking of illegal arms to my country from the United States. 70% of illegal weapons seized from criminals in Mexico come from your country. We do not produce the weapons, and we do not consume the synthetic drugs. Unfortunately, it is our lives that are lost to crime in response to the demand for drugs in your country.
President Trump, it is not with threats or tariffs that we can address the migration phenomenon or drug consumption in the US. Meeting these great challenges requires cooperation and mutual understanding. One tariff will be followed by another in response, and so on until we put joint ventures at risk. Yes, joint [ventures]. For example, some of the main exporters from Mexico to the US are General Motors, Stellantis, and Ford Motors Company, which arrived in Mexico 80 years ago. Why impose a tax that puts them at risk? It is not acceptable and would cause inflation and job losses in both the United States and Mexico.
I am convinced that the economic strength of North America lies in maintaining our commercial partnership. This way, we can continue to be competitive against other economic blocs. I believe that dialogue is the best path towards understanding, peace and prosperity in our nations, and I hope that our teams can meet soon.
Sincerely,
Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo
President of the United States of Mexico
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