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| - Last Updated on August 27, 2024 by Dr Priyamvada
Quick Take
A post on X claims NTI predicted a massive lab-engineered monkeypox outbreak with 271 million deaths. Our fact-check says it’s False.
The Claim
A social media post from X claims that the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI) predicted a laboratory-engineered, vaccine-resistant monkeypox (Mpox) outbreak in 2021. The post claims that it led to 271 million deaths worldwide. The post implies that this exercise was more than just a hypothetical scenario. It further suggests that it was a prediction connected to global entities like Bill Gates and the Rockefeller Foundation.
Fact Check
What is a tabletop exercise?
A tabletop exercise is a discussion-driven activity where participants work through a fictional scenario to explore potential challenges and solutions. These exercises aim to provoke thoughtful dialogue among experts. This helps them uncover critical issues and gain insights into effective strategies for managing complex problems. Commonly used across various fields, tabletop exercises prepare professionals for worst-case scenarios by enhancing their readiness for potential crises.
What is NTI, and what was their 2021 tabletop exercise about?
Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI) is a non-profit organisation which aims to reduce global threats. In March 2021, they partnered with the Munich Security Conference (MSC) to conduct a tabletop exercise. This exercise simulated a global pandemic caused by a fictional strain of monkeypox (Mpox) that emerged in the imaginary country of Brinia. The scenario involved a deliberate release of this engineered pathogen by terrorists. This simulated attack led to over 3 billion cases and 270 million deaths within the exercise’s framework. The purpose was to test and improve preparedness, not to predict or foreshadow real-world events.
Did NTI predict a lab engineered monkeypox outbreak with 271 million deaths in 2021?
No, NTI did not predict a Mpox outbreak with 271 million deaths in 2021. The tabletop exercise conducted by NTI and the Munich Security Conference in March 2021 was entirely fictional. The scenario involved a hypothetical Mpox outbreak, designed to assess and improve global preparedness for biological threats. It was not intended to predict actual future events but rather to identify and address gaps in international biosecurity and pandemic response systems. The claim misrepresents this exercise, which was purely hypothetical in nature.
The NTI document further confirms that the exercise was a simulation, with no real-world predictions involved. There is also no evidence that Dustin Moskovitz sponsored the event or has any agenda involving CRISPR gene editing. The focus of the exercise was solely on strengthening global biosecurity, not on promoting specific technologies or predicting actual outbreaks. The NTI also released an FAQ section specially to address this deliberate disinformation by some social media outlets.
Did Dustin Moskovitz sponsor a monkeypox simulation?
The claim that Dustin Moskovitz sponsored a live pandemic simulation of a lab engineered, vaccine-resistant Mpox outbreak with 3.2 billion cases and 271 million deaths is false. Dustin Moskovitz, co-founder of Facebook and Asana, is indeed a part of Open Philanthropy. This is an organisation that supports global causes, including biosecurity. However, the tabletop exercise conducted by the NTI in March 2021, which simulated a hypothetical Mpox outbreak, was not a “live pandemic simulation,” nor was it sponsored by Moskovitz.
The exercise was a strategic simulation designed to identify gaps in global biosecurity and improve preparedness for potential biological threats, and the focus was not on any specific agenda such as using CRISPR (clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats) gene-editing technology on humanity. The portrayal of Moskovitz as pushing a global agenda through this simulation misrepresents both his philanthropic efforts and the nature of the NTI exercise. Moreover, linking the exercise to CRISPR gene editing is entirely baseless. It reflects a common tactic in conspiracy theories, where unrelated elements are combined to create a narrative that sounds believable but is, in fact, misleading and incorrect.
Is the current monkeypox outbreak similar to NTI’s fictional scenario?
No, the current Mpox outbreak differs significantly from the fictional scenario in NTI’s exercise. The exercise featured a hypothetical engineered strain of Mpox, designed to be more transmissible and deadly, resulting in over three billion cases and 270 million deaths. In contrast, the current outbreak involves the natural West African strain, which has a much lower case fatality rate, especially in countries with strong public health systems. There is no evidence suggesting that the current outbreak involves an engineered pathogen or that it poses a similar global threat. Public health experts are closely monitoring the situation to understand the factors behind its spread in new regions.
What is the likely impact of this misinformation?
Misinformation like this can cause significant harm. It actually weakens public trust in health organisations and experts. Health misinformation also creates confusion and fear. Additionally, it detracts from the critical work being done to improve global preparedness for genuine biological threats. By misrepresenting the NTI exercise, these false claims can discourage the necessary cooperation and collaboration in public health, which is vital for addressing future pandemics.
THIP Media Take
The claim that NTI predicted a laboratory-engineered monkeypox outbreak with 271 million deaths in 2021 is false. The NTI’s 2021 tabletop exercise was a simulation using a fictional scenario, not a forecast of real-world events. The exercise aimed to identify weaknesses in global preparedness for biological threats, not to make predictions about the future. This kind of misinformation distorts the reality of public health efforts and hampers global security improvements.
The recent Mpox outbreak has given rise to various conspiracy theories and misconceptions. Some claims suggest that the WHO ordered lockdowns for a deadly monkeypox strain, while others mistakenly believe that Mpox is an airborne disease. Additionally, there has been confusion between monkeypox and shingles, with some falsely equating the two. It is very important to not rely on social media claims, as it can make matters worse especially in cases of health emergencies.
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