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| - Almost thirty years after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Moscow has cemented its role as an influential power broker on the international stage. But closer to home, countries formally in its fold are in turmoil with long-simmering conflicts reigniting and historic protest movements threatening Soviet-style strongmen. The dictatorial leader of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko has ruled over his country with an iron fist and Soviet-style authoritarianism since 1994. His claim to victory in the August 9 presidential election with 80 percent of the vote sparked historic protests against his rule, with demonstrators flooding the streets every weekend since the vote to demand his departure. The protests have persisted months after the ballot despite a brutal police crackdown and the detention or exile of the opposition's most prominent and outspoken figures. For Moscow, Lukashenko is an essential -- if unpredictable -- ally. Russian President Vladimir Putin sees Belarus as an important buffer zone with NATO members west of Belarus that the Russian leader deems to be an unacceptable threat. The majority-Armenian province of Nagorno-Karabakh in the South Caucasus was designated part of Azerbaijan in the 1920s by Soviet leader Joseph Stalin. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, a conflict erupted between Azerbaijan and Armenian-backed separatists in Karabakh that claimed some 30,000 lives. A ceasefire brokered in 1994 resulted in the de facto creation of the self-proclaimed republic backed by Armenia. Russia maintains good relations with both Armenia and Azerbaijan, but has failed to oversee a lasting political resolution. Some observers suggest Russia wants the conflict to simmer so Moscow can project its influence over both sides. Fighting erupted again late last month following decades of failed negotiations and Azerbaijan -- with Turkey's support -- has said it is determined to capture Karabakh. The poor and mountainous republic of Kyrgyzstan on the fringes of the former Soviet Union is the most democratic of all the Central Asian states, but also its most unstable. It witnessed revolutions in 2005 and 2010 that toppled two presidents as the country grabbled with authoritarianism, corruption and electoral fraud. In 2010, Kyrgyzstan's Uzbek minority in the south of the country was targeted in violent attacks. Former president Almazbek Atambayev oversaw several years of relative stability and was replaced by ally Sooronbay Jeenbekov in 2017. Their relationship soured after Jeenbekov worked to break away from his predecessor's influence and had his former ally jailed following police raids on his home in 2019. Putin's efforts to reconcile the two leaders during meetings in 2019 were not succesful. In October 2020, widespread allegations of vote-buying in parliamentary elections sparked violent clashes and demonstrators occupied government buildings and freed Atambayev before the results were eventually annulled. In 2014, a pro-Western popular uprising in Ukraine triggered Russia's annexation of the Crimean peninsula and sparked an ongoing war between Kiev's forces and Moscow-backed separatists in the east. For Putin, the protests in Ukraine presented an opportunity to send Western countries a clear message: NATO and the European Union should end their courtship of former Soviet countries. Peace talks led by France and Germany have mostly stalled but the election of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in 2019 injected some urgency into negotiations to end the conflict that has claimed 13,000 lives. Relations between Russia and Georgia are strained following a brief war in 2008 that ended with Moscow recognising two self-proclaimed republics on Georgian territory. Moscow has also deployed peacekeepers to majority Russian-speaking Transnistria, a narrow breakaway state that formed after a 1990s war in what is now Moldova. Russia also supports Transnistria's separatist officials. alf-acl/jbr/rl
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