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| - Ethiopia's northern region of Tigray should pause plans to hold elections next month, as these would further poison relations with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government and may lead to conflict, the International Crisis Group (ICG) said Friday. The two sides "are on a collision course" over the proposed polls, it said, warning that tensions "could lead the parties to blows." Ethiopia had been scheduled to hold landmark national elections later this month. However, in March the electoral board announced polls would be delayed because of the coronavirus pandemic and a new date has not been set. Opponents of Abiy, winner of last year's Nobel Peace Prize, accuse him of capitalising on the pandemic to extend his time in office beyond the expiration of the government's mandate in early October. Among Abiy's most vocal critics is the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), which dominated Ethiopia's ruling coalition for nearly three decades before anti-government protests led to Abiy's appointment as prime minister in 2018. The TPLF has lost much of its power at the federal level but remains in charge in Tigray -- and has pushed ahead with organising regional elections despite objections from officials in the capital Addis Ababa. The Tigray government has not announced a date for the elections, but in a briefing paper published Friday ICG cited a TPLF official saying they would happen "between 17-20 September". "To end the standoff, Tigray should pause its elections plans and Addis Ababa should embrace dialogue with Tigray to address the electoral dispute and ease the underlying causes of their destabilising acrimony," the briefing said. Last month Abiy ruled out the possibility of military intervention or budget cuts over the elections, but ICG noted that other federal officials have been less conciliatory and that the risk of "catastrophic" conflict remains. There is also the possibility that Tigray would take steps to secede from Ethiopia, which could lead to altercations with neighbouring Amhara region over disputed territory, ICG said. Relations between Abiy and the TPLF have declined steadily since Abiy took office in April 2018. Most recently federal officials have accused the TPLF of involvement in the killing in June of Hachalu Hundessa, a popular singer from the Oromo ethnic group -- a claim the TPLF has dismissed as baseless. Hachalu's killing kicked off days of unrest that by one count left 239 people dead, highlighting security challenges that have dogged Abiy's tenure. rcb/fb/ri
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