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| - US consumers continued spending in August even as incomes fell, the Commerce Department said Thursday, reflecting the end of government benefits credited with supporting consumption amid the coronavirus downturn. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) rose 1.0 percent while income fell 2.7 percent, both more than expected. The Commerce Department tied the fall in income to the expiration in July of extra $600 weekly payments made to the unemployed under the CARES Act stimulus package. Analysts warned the data indicates looming weakness among consumers, with Gregory Daco of Oxford Economics pointing to a decline in the savings rate to 14.1 percent from 17.8 percent. "With compensation growing at a slower pace and government transfers diminishing, consumers dipped into their savings to finance their outlays -- this is not a sustainable reality," Daco said in an analysis. "Unless employment growth picks up, or additional fiscal aid is extended, consumer spending is at risk of slowing dramatically during the second phase of the recovery." The report said the fall in compensation was lessened by a $17.5 billion rise in government salary disbursements, partly due to temporary hiring for census workers. Spending on services increased $87.9 billion, particularly health care and food services and accommodation, while spending on goods fell by $10.3 billion, particularly take-away food and beverages. The PCE price index, both excluding and including food and energy, rose a modest 0.3 percent. Year on year, PCE prices were up 1.4 percent, indicating continued restrained inflation. Daco warned that while this data indicates a strong third quarter recovery in GDP after Covid-19 caused a historic 31.4 percent collapse in the second quarter, consumption in the fourth quarter could be weak if Congress doesn't pass more stimulus. "Our recovery tracker points to moderating momentum heading into (the fourth quarter) just as fiscal aid is expiring, job growth is slowing and sentiment remains muted. Needless to say, a lot rides on Congress' shoulders in supporting the economy into 2021," he said. cs/dw
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