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  • A majority of people both north and south of the border predict a united Ireland in the medium term, according to a BBC poll. Some 54 percent in Ireland and 51 percent in Northern Ireland believe the province will not be a part of the United Kingdom in 25 years, it said in a survey published Tuesday night. Some 2,845 people were questioned in Northern Ireland in early April, and nearly 1,100 in Ireland. Respondents agreed the change would not come within the next 10 years -- broadly matching the findings of a separate poll published Wednesday in Ireland. That RED C poll, commissioned by lobby group European Movement Ireland (EMI), found only 32 percent of people agreed with the statement that "there will be a united Ireland in the EU in the next 10 years". Britain's seismic 2016 decision to leave the European Union has stimulated debate around the future of Northern Ireland, which is home to some 1.9 million people. The territory was created 100 years ago when the Irish Republic gained independence from British rule, and its status has been contested ever since. Some 56 percent in Northern Ireland voted to remain inside the EU in the 2016 referendum, and there has been speculation citizens might prefer to join with Ireland and remain inside the bloc. Northern Ireland was also the site of "The Troubles" sectarian conflict between pro-UK unionists and pro-Ireland nationalists -- three decades of bloodshed which largely wound down in 1998. As the conflict waned, the status of the province was blurred under provisions made possible by the UK and Ireland's mutual EU membership. There are suggestions Brexit has opened old wounds in the deeply divided region, as new border checks have been erected to police the edge of the EU's single market and customs union. Meanwhile, unionist politicians have lost their historic hold on power in the region and there are suggestions of a demographic shift towards nationalist communities. Ultimately, the 1998 "Good Friday Agreement" which ended "The Troubles" stipulates the British secretary of state for Northern Ireland has the power to call a unity poll. The accord says he "shall" organise one "if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland." jts/phz/spm
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  • United Ireland likely in 25 years: poll
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