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| - Ecuadorans go to the polls Sunday to choose between a socialist economist and a fiscally conservative ex-banker to lead a country besieged by deep economic problems aggravated by the coronavirus pandemic. Just over 13 million eligible voters will have a record 16 presidential candidates to pick from, but polls show Andres Arauz and Guillermo Lasso as clear frontrunners in the race shaping up to be a fierce ideological contest. "The voters' choice is between two poles... and that is worrying because it leads to political polarization," said political scientist Simon Pachano of the Latin American Faculty of Social Sciences (FLACSO) in Quito. Arauz represents the Union of Hope (UNES) coalition of left-wing parties, while businessman Guillermo Lasso is of the CREO rightwing movement. Arauz, 35, is a protege of two-time socialist president Rafael Correa, who remains a strong political force despite a graft conviction. Arauz has promised to return the country to a socialist path after a four-year hiatus under incumbent Lenin Moreno, and pledged to disburse $1,000 to a million families during his first month in office. He is opposed to austerity measures such as an end to fuel subsidies which in 2019 triggered the country's worst unrest in decades, leaving 11 dead and more than 1,300 hurt in anti-government protests led by poor and indigenous communities. Arauz has also mooted a special tax on the rich. Running in his third presidential race, free market advocate Lasso, 65, has said he would create a million jobs in a year. He will likely stick to the austerity policies adopted by Moreno, who has had to rein in spending in exchange for International Monetary Fund loans that have bolstered the oil-producing country's faltering dollar-based economy. Ecuador is mired in debt as the profits of an oil boom during the Correa presidency dried up under Moreno as the price of crude crashed. National debt rose from 26 percent of GDP to 44 percent during the term of Moreno, who also took steps to improve ties with the United States. The coronavirus epidemic piled on the pressure, with some $6.4 billion in losses attributed directly to the health crisis, according to government data. Ecuador's economy is forecast to contract 8.9 percent in 2020, while unemployment reached 8.6 percent last September -- more than doubling in nine months. Moreno, his popularity at an all-time low of seven percent, is not seeking reelection. Nestled between Peru and Colombia on South America's west coast, Ecuador has a population of 17.4 million. Just over 13 million are registered to vote Sunday in elections for a new president and 137 members of the unicameral parliament. Given the polling numbers, it is unlikely the first presidential round will be decisive. To emerge victorious, a candidate must take half of the votes cast, plus one, or at least 40 percent of the votes with a 10 percentage point advantage over the nearest rival. There will likely to be "a fierce second round," penciled in for April 11, said Blasco Penaherrera of the Market polling agency. The third-placed rival to Arauz and Lasso is Yaku Perez, the first indigenous candidate in 15 years, polling at 12 percent. As a representative of indigenous voters, a defender of the environment and candidate of the left, Perez "could define (the outcome) of a possible second round," assuming the role of kingmaker, political analyst Franklin Ramirez, also of FLACSO, told AFP. Added Leonidas Iza, head of the MICC social movement backing Perez's candidacy, "any future government will have to deal with the... indigenous movement" still simmering after the 2019 protests. About 60 percent of Ecuador's indigenous people -- as much as 25 percent of the population according to anthropological data -- live in poverty. The 13 other presidential candidates are all polling at under four percent. The only woman on the list, Ximena Pena, is at 1.6 percent. Election officials decided not to cancel the vote despite the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, which has killed some 15,000 people in Ecuador, and polls suggest many may stay away from the urns for fear of infection. burs-mlr/acb
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