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  • A US stimulus package in the order of the $2.2 trillion CARES act approved in March would increase growth by two percentage points next year, the IMF's chief economist told AFP on Tuesday. Gita Gopinath said in an interview that such a big jump over the 3.1 percent GDP rise currently forecast for the world's largest economy "will bring the US much more quickly back to pre-crisis levels" in 2021 rather than 2022. And the gain would have "significant benefits for the world" as well, especially for US neighbors Canada and Mexico. The comments come as US President Donald Trump's White House remains locked in talks with Democratic leaders over a new rescue package, while Senate Republicans have revolted over the cost of the beefed up proposal. The Democratic-controlled lower House approved a $2.2 trillion HEROES Act, which the Senate has not taken up, while Trump last week upped his proposal to $1.8 trillion, which House Speaker Nancy Pelosi called "insufficient." The total of nearly $3 trillion in government support injected into the US economy in the early weeks of the Covid-19 pandemic kept the recession from being as severe, and the IMF upgraded its forecast for this year to show a decline of 4.3 percent. Gopinath said the IMF forecasts assume there is no additional stimulus, but "if there is an additional round of stimulus which is about the size of the CARES Act, then that will add two percentage points to growth in 2021." And since the US "is a sizable economy," such a big boost would benefit the global economy with "positive spillovers to trade and also through the financial channels," she said. The IMF released its latest World Economic Outlook on Tuesday which sees the global economy contracting 4.4 percent this year and rebounding by 5.2 percent in 2021. hs/ft
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  • Major stimulus would boost US growth 2 points in 2021: IMF economist to AFP
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