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Claim: The Philippines’ projected Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate of 6% for 2023 is ranked first in Asia, according to the April 2023 World Economic Outlook report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Rating: FALSE
Why we fact-checked this: The claim can be found in an April 20 post on President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s official Facebook page “Bongbong Marcos.”
The post says: “Nangunguna ang ekonomiya ng Pilipinas sa buong Asya sa 6% nitong projected GDP growth ayon sa World Economic Outlook na inilabas ng International Monetary Fund nitong Abril.” (The Philippine economy leads Asia with its 6% projected GDP growth, according to the World Economic Outlook released by the International Monetary Fund this April.)
As of writing, the post already had about 112,000 reactions, 9,100 comments, and 9,500 shares.
The bottom line: The IMF report referenced in the Facebook post features a more comprehensive list that shows three Asian countries with projected 2023 GDP growth rates exceeding the Philippines’ 6%.
The Facebook post matches the data in Annex Table 1.1.2 of the report, which lists only seven countries – China, India, Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, Philippines, and Malaysia – under the category “Emerging and Developing Asia.”
However, Table A4 of the report shows a longer list of countries under “Emerging and Developing Asia”: Bangladesh, Bhutan, Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, China, Fiji, India, Indonesia, Kiribati, Lao P.D.R., Malaysia, Maldives, Marshall Islands, Micronesia, Mongolia, Myanmar, Nauru, Nepal, Palau, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Tonga, Tuvalu, Vanuatu, and Vietnam.
Based on this list, three countries have GDP growth rate projections exceeding the Philippines’ 6% rate for 2023: Fiji (7.0%), Maldives (7.2%), and Palau (8.7%). However, Fiji and Palau are really part of Oceania, Maldives is part of South Asia and is technically the top country in Asia in terms of 2023 growth forecasts.
Forecast, not actual figures: It’s key to note that these numbers are projected figures that forecast the growth of a country’s economy. Actual GDP growth rates may fall above or below these figures.
Various factors can affect GDP forecasts, such as the size of a country. While the IMF report shows that Fiji, Maldives, and Palau have higher projected GDP growth rates, it should be noted that the Philippines is a much larger economy compared to these island nations.
Among similarly-sized economies in emerging and developing Asia, the Philippines is projected to post the highest GDP growth rate. However, the IMF report also indicates a downward trend for the country.
Looking at the forecasts for the Philippines, Malaysia, and Vietnam, Table A4 in the report shows that Vietnam is projected to post higher GDP growth rates in 2024 and 2028, compared to the Philippines and Malaysia.
Philippines’ latest GDP figures: According to the Philippine Statistics Authority, the Philippines’ GDP grew by 7.6% in 2022, exceeding the 6.5% to 7.5% target set by the Marcos administration.
For 2023, the government aims for GDP growth between 6% and 7%.
From 2021 to 2022, the Philippines’ GDP grew by 7.6%, which exceeded the 6.5% to 7.5% target set by the Marcos administration’s economic team. The 2023 target for the Philippines’ GDP growth rate is 6% to 7%. (READ: High growth, high inflation: Philippines beats 2022 GDP target) The 7.6% GDP growth rate from 2021 to 2022 can also be confirmed from the PSA data.
Fact checks on the Philippines’ GDP growth rate: Rappler has previously fact-checked claims on the Philippines’ GDP growth rate:
- FACT CHECK: Ibinalita ng media ang 7.6% GDP growth rate ng Pilipinas (February 6, 2023)
- FALSE: PH only ASEAN nation with projected positive GDP growth in July 2022 (July 18, 2022)
- MISSING CONTEXT: Philippine economy grows by 11.8% (August 17, 2021)
Fact checks of claims on the Philippines’ economic performance: This claim of the Philippines leading Asia in projected GDP growth rate echoes similar claims that paint the country as an economic powerhouse during the administration of the late dictator Ferdinand E. Marcos. Rappler has fact-checked these claims:
- Philippine economy was not the best in Asia during the Marcos administration (November 22, 2022)
- FALSE: Philippines was ‘richest country in Asia’ during Marcos years (September 12, 2019)
– Percival Bueser/ Rappler.com
Percival Bueser is a graduate of Rappler’s fact-checking mentorship program. This fact check was reviewed by a member of Rappler’s research team and a senior editor. Learn more about Rappler’s fact-checking mentorship program here.
Keep us aware of suspicious Facebook pages, groups, accounts, websites, articles, or photos in your network by contacting us at factcheck@rappler.com. You may also report dubious claims to #FactsFirstPH tipline by messaging Rappler on Facebook or Newsbreak via Twitter direct message. You may also report through our Viber fact check chatbot. Let us battle disinformation one Fact Check at a time.
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