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| - MPs from the uMkhonto weSizwe Party, Economic Freedom Fighters, and Build One South Africa were correct about South Africa’s 2030 ambitious unemployment rate target, the current housing backlog and the country’s debt at 74% of GDP.
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Rise Mzansi’s Songezo Zibi was correct in his claims about US trade with South Africa, including import and export values and product details.
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But the Democratic Alliance, the MK Party, Bosa and the EFF made incorrect claims about South Africa’s current unemployment rate, food price increases for the poor, child malnutrition and how much the economy has – or hasn’t – grown under Ramaphosa.
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In February 2025, South African parliamentarians debated president Cyril Ramaphosa’s state of the nation address (Sona).
While some criticised and others praised, Africa Check took a closer look at the claims made.
The Build One South Africa party leader has long advocated for raising the matric pass mark from 30% to 50%.
In South Africa, the last year of secondary school is called matric and the students matriculants. The national final exams at the end of the school year are known as matric exams.
Maimane’s figures are largely accurate. In 2024, 30.2% of matriculants scored 50% or more in maths, while just under 30% did so in physical science.
While overall pass rates are higher than ever, South Africa falls below global standards in maths and science, according to 2023 data from the Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study, an international study that tracks learner performance across countries.
Research suggests that performance in these subjects varies widely based on students’ home and school conditions.
Unemployment, a major issue in South Africa, was a key topic in the Sona debates.
John Hlophe, deputy president of the uMkhonto weSizwe Party, correctly stated that the National Development Plan set a goal of 6% unemployment by 2030, aiming to eliminate poverty and reduce inequality.
Hlophe’s comparison to current figures was also correct. Data for the third quarter of 2024, the latest available at the time of the Sona debates, showed an expanded unemployment rate of 41.9%. This included discouraged work seekers and those who had other reasons for not looking for work. Excluding those groups, the official rate was 32.1%.
Fourth quarter data has since been released and shows no change in the expanded unemployment rate. The official rate decreased marginally to 31.9%.
The government has already missed its previous target of a 14% unemployment rate by 2020.
According to the latest data from the International Labour Organization (ILO), South Africa had the second-highest unemployment rate of the 190 economies measured in 2023, at 32.1%. Eswatini topped the list at 35.1%.
South Africa was last listed as having the highest unemployment rate in 2019. (Note: Historical ILO estimates are adjusted when new data is added. In our earlier reporting, based on previous ILO data estimates, South Africa’s unemployment was last ranked highest in 2022.)
While it has often been in the top five, South Africa hasn’t always been number one. In the last decade, North Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Eswatini have all held the top spot at some point. Steenhuisen’s claim is, therefore, incorrect.
But, importantly, cross-country comparisons can be tricky. Not all countries are included in the international rankings, have recent data or define unemployment in the same way.
The “housing backlog” usually refers to the number of people on the National Housing Needs Register (NHNR), the waiting list for government housing.
In September 2024, then human settlements minister Mmamoloko Kubayi said there were “3.3 million households/individuals registered on the NHNR”.
But the NHNR includes all forms of government housing support, like housing subsidies, not just newly built houses.
The department has previously suggested that the “housing backlog” refers to those living in “informal” or “traditional” housing.
By this measure, the housing backlog would still be about 3 million as of 2023. That year’s general household survey found that 12.2% of an estimated 19 million households lived in “informal” dwellings, while 3.9% lived in “traditional” dwellings, a total of almost 3.1 million.
Hlophe’s figure does not match the most recent reliable estimates.
Food baskets are estimates of a household’s monthly food costs based on commonly bought items. Different baskets use different products and quantities.
The cost of one major food basket in December 2024 increased by 4.4% compared to the previous year, to R1,294. This basket, compiled by the National Agricultural Marketing Council, includes 28 popular food items but is not based on nutritional principles or a specific household size.
Similar increases were reported for other months compared to the same month in the previous year, and none were 11.3% more expensive. The highest annual increase was 10.7% between January 2023 and 2024.
Another major basket, by the Pietermaritzburg Economic Justice and Dignity Group (PEJDG), is designed with women living on low incomes across South Africa to reflect real spending for a seven-person household.
It increased by 2% between January 2024 and 2025, to R5,434. The highest cost increase since 2023 was also in January 2024, at 8.3%. It has not recently seen an 11.3% rise.
The PEJDG has warned that current wages are too low for many general workers to cover basic expenses.
In November 2024, health minister Aaron Motsoaledi reported that 1,457 children had died from moderate or severe malnutrition in public health facilities between January 2023 and 8 November 2024.
This data covers nearly two years, not just “last year alone”, as Masango claimed.
In December 2024, Motsoaledi said that 618 child deaths in 2024, up to that point, showed signs of acute malnutrition, but it was not necessarily a confirmed cause of death.
One common way to measure poverty is straightforwardly economic – how much money someone has each month to meet their needs. Extreme poverty means having too little money to afford enough food for minimum energy requirements.
Statistics South Africa calculates poverty thresholds and updates them as prices change. In 2015, Stats SA estimated that a quarter of the population (13.8 million people) lived in extreme poverty, earning R441 or less per month at the time.
New poverty data will be published in mid-2025, according to 2024 thresholds.
Werner Ruch, head of Stats SA’s money-metric poverty division, confirmed that this will be the first new update since 2015. He was unsure where Hlophe’s figure came from.
A commonly used indicator of financial health is a country’s total debt relative to its gross domestic product or GDP – the value of all goods and services produced.
The latest data available at the time of the Sona debates put South Africa’s debt at R5.21 trillion in 2023/24, or 73.9% of GDP.
Higher debt-to-GDP ratios are usually associated with lower growth, but overall financial health is influenced by a number of factors. Japan has a famously high ratio of over 200%, for example, but an expert previously told Africa Check that it is considered more creditworthy than South Africa because it is better equipped to repay its loans.
An economy’s size is usually measured by its GDP. “Real” GDP, which accounts for inflation, is used to track economic growth over time.
Since 2018, South Africa’s real annual growth rate has fluctuated, from -6.2% in 2020 during the Covid pandemic to a peak of 5% in 2021. In 2023, the latest year for which data is available, the growth rate was 0.7%.
The Rise Mzansi party leader correctly reported the value of South Africa’s trade with the United States in 2024.
Data from the South African Revenue Service (Sars) shows goods and services exports to the US totalling R156.76 billion and imports from the US valued at R120.44 billion.
At time of publication, it was unclear how – or if – trade between South Africa and the US would be affected by US president Donald Trump’s proposed policy changes.
Zibi accurately gave the combined value of chemical and mineral product exports to the US in 2024, at R20.33 billion, and imports from the US, at R35.11 billion, according to Sars bilateral trade data.
He was also correct about South Africa’s vehicle, aircraft and vessel exports, which reached R34.77 billion in 2024.
The Special Investigating Unit (SIU) and National Prosecuting Authority (NPA) are both involved in fighting corruption. The SIU handles civil investigation while the NPA focuses on criminal prosecution. In their official reports both typically use the term “capacity” to refer to staffing.
Both agencies are operating at higher capacities than claimed by Maimane. In 2023/24 the SIU had a vacancy rate of 12%, while the NPA reported 23% vacancies.
Maimane may have confused them with a division of the South African police known as the Hawks, officially the Directorate for Priority Crime Investigation.
In May 2021, the Hawks operated with 48% of its intended workforce, according to its deputy national head. Its capacity has increased slightly since then, reaching 52% in November 2022, the latest available data.
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