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| - Last Updated on December 19, 2024 by Dr Priyamvada
Quick Take
A social media post claims that a fertility rate below 2.1 can wipe out a community. We did the fact check to term this claim as mostly false.
The Claim
A post on X shows that RSS leader Mohan Bhagwat recently stated that if fertility rates fall below 2.1, communities risk being “wiped out.” This claim has been widely shared on the platform, suggesting that everyone must have at least three children to avoid the “extinction” of communities.
Similar claims have also been seen here.
Fact Check
Does a fertility rate below 2.1 mean a community will disappear?
No, a fertility rate below 2.1 doesn’t automatically lead to the disappearance of a population. The replacement fertility rate of 2.1 is the level at which a population can replace itself, accounting for factors like infant mortality. However, even if fertility rates dip below this level, it doesn’t trigger an immediate collapse of the population.
We spoke with Poonam Muttreja, Executive Director, Population Foundation of India, for her expert perspective on whether fertility rate below 2.1 will lead to the collapse of a community. She says, “There’s no evidence that a Total Fertility Rate below 2.1 leads to population collapse. Changes unfold slowly, over decades and centuries. India’s TFR (2.0) recently fell below the replacement rate, and the UN projects its population will still peak near 1.7 billion by the 2060s and decline to 1.5 billion by 2100. Public policies or major events may alter these trends, which means collapse fears are unfounded.”
Countries such as Japan, South Korea, and Italy have fertility rates well below 2.1, yet they are not disappearing. These nations may face challenges like an ageing population and a shrinking workforce, but they are far from extinction. Population decline due to lower fertility rates occurs gradually, over many generations, and is influenced by a variety of factors beyond just the number of children born.
What are the factors that affect population growth?
Fertility rates are just one piece of the puzzle. Population growth depends on a range of factors, including migration, life expectancy, and socio-economic conditions. If a country or community experiences a decline in fertility rates, migration can help compensate for this. Immigrants can help maintain population numbers, even if fewer children are born.
Improvements in healthcare and life expectancy also play a significant role. People are living longer, contributing to population stability. Even if fewer children are born, a population can still grow if people are living longer and healthier lives. Therefore, fertility rates alone don’t paint the full picture of population dynamics.
Can increasing the number of children solve population problems?
Not necessarily. Encouraging larger families without addressing the underlying challenges can create more problems than it solves.
While it may seem like a simple solution to encourage larger families, doing so without addressing other issues—like the availability of resources, economic stability, and access to healthcare—can lead to new challenges. Overpopulation can strain resources such as food, water, healthcare, and education. Countries with high fertility rates, such as some regions in Sub-Saharan Africa, often struggle with poverty, lack of infrastructure, and limited opportunities. Increasing the number of children in such contexts can lead to a lower quality of life, not improved living standards.
Moreover, promoting larger families without the necessary support systems can worsen socio-economic problems. For example, without proper access to education and healthcare, larger families may face greater financial strain, leading to higher poverty rates and fewer opportunities for individuals.
Is there a risk of certain communities disappearing due to fertility rates?
No, the data does not support this claim. Fertility rates are declining across all communities in India. For instance, the fertility rate for Hindus is 1.9, while for Muslims, it’s 2.4. Although there is a slight difference, the gap is narrowing over time. This is part of the natural demographic transition, where fertility rates decline as societies improve in education, healthcare, and economic conditions.
The fertility rate among Muslims has significantly dropped, from 4.4 in 1992-93 to 2.4 in 2019-20, marking a sharper decline compared to Hindus. Contrary to claims that Muslims are outnumbering Hindus, regions with large Muslim populations, such as Jammu and Kashmir, Assam, and Kerala, have fertility rates below the national average. Recently, concerns about fertility issues have emerged, particularly in the Kashmiri region, which has a predominantly Muslim population. This decline directly counters the misleading narrative that Muslims are driving a population explosion and disrupting India’s demographic balance.
Alcohol consumption and smoking among women are also significant factors contributing to reduced fertility across all groups.
What happens if fertility rates stay below 2.1?
Nothing drastic. Populations can still adapt and thrive. If fertility rates remain below 2.1, it may lead to slower population growth, but it does not mean a community will disappear. Populations are shaped by many factors, including migration, cultural shifts, and technological advancements, not just fertility. Many countries with low fertility rates are already adapting by encouraging immigration, improving social systems, and strengthening economic growth.
Countries like Japan, South Korea, and China are adapting to low fertility rates with smart strategies. Japan and South Korea focus on supporting working parents, encouraging immigration, and improving life quality for ageing populations. Similarly, China addresses slower population growth with economic growth, innovation, and policies for the older people. These efforts show that low fertility rates don’t lead to extinction but require adjustments to new demographic realities. Such strategies ensure stability and progress despite changing population trends.
Why is reaching a replacement fertility rate beneficial?
A replacement fertility rate, which is about 2.1 children per woman, helps keep the population stable. It ensures that each generation has enough children to replace itself, avoiding too many people or too few. This balance supports the economy by providing enough workers and helps keep essential services, like healthcare and pensions, running smoothly. It also prevents problems like overpopulation, where resources can get stretched too thin.
THIP Media Take
The claim that communities will be ‘wiped out’ if fertility rates fall below 2.1 is misleading and mostly false. While lower fertility can slow population growth, it doesn’t lead to extinction. Factors like migration, healthcare, and socio-economic conditions help societies adapt. Focusing on education, healthcare, and economic stability, rather than just increasing family size, is key to sustainable growth and a prosperous future.
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