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| - A protest movement in Mali has snowballed in just six weeks, shaking the presidency of Ibrahim Boubacar Keita and sparking fears for the fragile state's future. What are the causes of the crisis in the West African country and where could it lead? Mali's downward spiral can be traced to regional and jihadist insurgencies that began in 2012. The emergency helped pave the way to victory for Keita in elections in 2013, when he cast himself as national saviour. Seven years on, anger is growing at jihadist advances that have left thousands dead and forced hundreds of thousands from their home, and at the absence of the authorities from stricken regions. But there is also resentment about poverty -- Mali's chronic lack of roads and health care, access to water and electricity and food insecurity. According to World Bank figures, more than 40 percent of Mali's 20 million people experience extreme poverty. Fanning the flames is the perception of corruption at the top. Recently-published images of the president's son partying on a yacht abroad have entrenched such suspicions. Grievances have been expressed in various diffuse ways in recent years, but today are stronger and more focused, says Ibrahim Maiga, a researcher at the Institute of Security Studies (ISS) in Bamako. "There is now a face, a spokesman that many people can identify with," he said. This is Mahmoud Dicko, a Saudi-trained imam who has been a scourge of corruption, defender of conservative values and stern critic of the "humiliation" suffered by Mali. Dicko's long presence in the public eye as a religious leader has made him the figurehead of the so-called June 5 movement, whose leaders are drawn from various political and social groups and often have contrasting agendas. Dicko himself was associated with Keita and the government, but today channels discontent. Bakary Sambe, director of the Timbuktu Institute think tank, described Dicko's rise as "the emergence of a charismatic figure who, for want of solutions, raises the same questions as the public." The spark for the protests was legislative elections, held in March and April after years of delay. The vote went ahead despite the emerging coronavirus pandemic and the kidnapping of opposition leader Soumaila Cisse by suspected jihadists. The Constitutional Court overturned the results from about 30 seats, of which 10 or so went to Keita's party, a move that incensed many people. At that point, opposition parties and civil society groups went into alliance with Dicko. The first protest on June 5, the date which gave the name to the movement, gathered young people, teachers and campaigners from grassroots organisations. Demonstrations on July 10 degenerated into three days of clashes with the security forces that left at least 11 dead. A new round of protests was set for this Friday, but it has been replaced by memorial ceremonies for who died the previous week. The 75-year-old president has made several gestures toward the June 5 Movement. They include the dissolution of the Constitutional Court to enable a U-turn on the contested seats, and a proposed government of national union. None of these moves has appeased the June 5 leaders, who are united around their demand that he must quit and warn of "civil disobedience" if he stays in power. Maiga said he did not "completely" rule out the possibility that Keita would quit. Keita's tactics of yielding ground -- and of seeking to maintain contested figures in a unity government -- have only worsened the situation, he said. "The steamroller has been set in motion. Only tough decisions now can brake the cycle of violence," said Brema Ely Dicko, a University of Bamako sociologist. Mali's allies and West African neighbours have watched anxiously as this vast, ethnically diverse, troubled state is convulsed by a political crisis. Experts looking at how things may play out say Mali's history points more towards a period of turbulence than to chaos, although they do not rule this out. "The fear is that the movement spins out of control," said Sambe. At present, Dicko "still holds the reins" but there are other leaders who want to confront the president directly and will use the imam's prestige as a tool in this strategy, he said. Dicko could also be outflanked by radicals who want a complete makeover of Malian politics, even if this brings turmoil. The limits to Dicko's radicalism may have been signalled in the move to postpone this Friday's protests. Defending the delay, he said only that it was for "highly strategic reasons." lal-ah/fjb/ri/txw
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